There's an establishment next door to our office in Old Town Alexandria called the Sacred Circle. Tarot-card reading, crystal balls, hair-ball divining, hocus pocus, that sort of carry on. Guess I'm not much on jiggery or pokery. Seems to me if that stuff really worked, nobody would much bother with having a flutter on the ponies. But, let's say that you could get inside Vivek Kundra's head - understand OMB's direction for the upcoming years. My there'd be a line of contractors up and down King Street waiting to stare into the gypsy's eyes...right?

Well, step up to my ouija board. Here are the magic numbers - 321-329. You may want to jot those down. And, with those numbers, we can prognosticate what's in Mr. Kundra's magic bag of IT. But, for my first trick, let's answer the eternal question - how big's the Fed IT budget and where's it headed? I've heard numbers from $70 to $80 billion - but what's $10 billion among friends? The 2010 budget is $78.44 billion - that's up from $71.227 billion in 2009. And, the number is projected to grow by 1.2 percent next year to $79.375 billion.

Yes, we've all heard the "doing-more-with-less" mantra. But, if the numbers are growing, aren't we talking about doing more with more? Perhaps today, but the path forward - beyond 2011 - does not look so magical. The wizards at Gartner tell us that Federal IT spending will start to decline in 2012 or 2013. Agencies need to take a hard look at their priorities today - and work out where to start proactive rationalization. Failure to do so will mean radical "gun-to-the-head" cuts as budgets start to contract. And so, Mr. Kundra wants Feds to tighten up IT spend starting today. The Federal CIO's spell book is all about centralization, green, consolidation, procurement reform, cyber security, hiring the right IT people into government, and transparency - it's about affecting real change today to prepare for tomorrow.

So here's my read on the Federal civilian IT tea leaves - the top 10 priorities for 2010:

1. Survival of the Fittest - Centralized Service Providers: Feds are taking a leaf out of DoD's book in identifying the best providers of specific services - human resources, financial management, and the like. Pilot programs in 2010 will blossom into production in 2011. We'll see less duplicative systems, so watch out if your agency is not a centralized service provider.
2. Russian Dolls - Data Center Consolidation: There are more - OMB wants less. Let the turf wars begin. As I said in my data center consolidation blog, this will likely prove a tough operational exercise. It'll be interesting to watch the sleight of hand tricks on definitions of what is a data center...You can register to attend the MeriTalk 1,100 conference on Data Center Consolidation on May 20th at the Reagan Building - DHS CIO and all the Federal leaders will be there.
3. One-Stop Shopping - Centralized Purchasing: Feds spent more than $20 billion using purchasing cards in 2009. The plan is to focus Federal purchasing through an online eMall. Now, not all of that $20 billion is IT spend, but GWAC operators, I'd watch your wallets.
4. IT Census - Replenishing the Cyber Ranks: OPM reports there are 70,000 IT pros in the Federal government - wouldn't conference organizers like to get their hands on that list... 2,500 of these IT pros are leaving the civil service each year. The CIO Council will survey the Fed IT workforce to learn who's on board, who to hire, and what IT pros think about Federal service. Yep, figure that'll be an online survey.
5. Federal Facebook - Collaborative Platform: You've heard of Spacebook. You know MeriTalk. You know GovLoop. Get ready to meet a fresh new face - FedSpace, the new Web 2.0 platform for Feds. Web 2.0 experts from across government are hard at work mapping requirements today. The platform will debut this year and go into full-scale production in 2011. Guess you'll be able to access it from your government PC... Somebody's going to lose face at some point - how many Web 2.0 platforms do we need in government? Feds will vote with their cursors.
6. Naked Truth - New Transparency in the Offing: Now this stuff gets confusing. Between data.gov, usaspending.gov, federalreporting.gov, IT Dashboard, and geospatial; we may need a dashboard to manage our dashboards - sometimes more can be less. The goal is to tie these data resources together to provide for radically improved management and new government-to-citizen transparency. Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) will be delighted to hear that usaspending.gov will provide subcontractor transparency in 2011 - bringing OMB into compliance with the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act (FFATA). Now we'll know where our tax dollars really go.
7. Government Customer Service - Seriously?: In 2010 and 2011, Uncle Sam will stand up - yes, you guessed it - another dashboard. This will highlight the top service delivery touch points to show the quality of service delivered to the public. I got in trouble last time I made a DMV joke - and the DMV got its own back on me when I had to apply for a disabled parking pass. So, moving right along...
8. Challenge Platforms - Innovation Prizes: Jumping on the reality TV bandwagon, Feds will ask average Americans to help solve priority challenges - cash prizes for clever ideas. Joking aside, this is a great, common-sense idea.
9. Cyberscope - FISMA Gets Off the Ropes: Tired of being the punch bag of Fed IT, FISMA's been to the gym - and is ready to start hitting back. Equipped with Cyberscope - yes, that's a dashboard - the new FISMA's long on real-time awareness, short on paperwork.
10. Identity Crisis - HSPD-12: Feds will revitalize identity management. As of September 1, 2009, Uncle Sam had issued some 4.1 million credentials. Twenty-nine percent of Feds still don't have their cards, so more work to do here. You know that credentialing and authentication will become increasingly important in a cloud-based world. As we push forward with issuing cards, it's important not to forget that cards don't add much value without readers...

Okay, so that's the top 10 prognostications for the coming two years. So, Dope, where'd you get this dope you may ask? Séances with the CIO Council? Digital divining? Remember the magic numbers you jotted down earlier - 321-329? Those are the page numbers in the Analytical Perspectives of the Budget of the U.S. Government for Federal Year 2011 where OMB lays out its plans. No magic here. The mystery is that more people don't read this public document. It's much cheaper than a session with a fortune teller - but please don't tell the fellas at the Sacred Circle. But if they're really psychic, figure they already know...