The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) released its annual intelligence community (IC) threat assessment on Monday, revealing that China, Russia, and Iran are capable of disrupting the U.S. 2024 election cycle.
The annual report was released ahead of Capitol Hill hearings on worldwide threats to the nation. On March 11, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hosted a vast array of IC leaders – including ODNI Director Avril Haines and FBI Director Christopher Wray. Both of whom also testified in front of the House Select Committee on Intelligence today on the annual threat assessment.
“The Annual Threat Assessment hearing provides the Intelligence Community an opportunity to update Congress and the American people on serious threats to our national security,” House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner, R-Ohio, said during his opening statement today.
“The Intelligence Community exists to protect the American people by informing policy and decision-makers of the threats posed to national security – which includes critical infrastructure, economic security, cybersecurity, food security, and several other components of national security,” Rep. Turner said. “Each year the world evolves, growing more interdependent. Our adversaries are aligning, and emerging technologies are changing the operational environment.”
ODNI’s 2024 threat assessment – which is produced annually by combining the collective insights of the IC – finds that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) “may attempt to influence the U.S. elections in 2024 at some level because of its desire to sideline critics of China and magnify U.S. societal divisions.”
“PRC actors’ have increased their capabilities to conduct covert influence operations and disseminate disinformation,” the 41-page report says.
China is demonstrating a higher degree of sophistication in its influence activity, including experimenting with generative AI. During the 2022 midterm election cycle, TikTok accounts run by a PRC propaganda arm reportedly targeted candidates from both political parties.
The document adds, “Even if Beijing sets limits on these activities, individuals not under its direct supervision may attempt election influence activities they perceive are in line with Beijing’s goals.”
Beijing’s growing efforts to actively exploit perceived U.S. societal divisions using its online personas move it closer to Moscow’s playbook for influence operations, the threat assessment states.
“Moscow views U.S. elections as opportunities and has conducted influence operations for decades and as recently as the U.S. midterm elections in 2022,” the report reads. “Russia is contemplating how U.S. electoral outcomes in 2024 could impact Western support to Ukraine and probably will attempt to affect the elections in ways that best support its interests and goals.”
Russia’s influence actors have adapted their efforts to better hide their hands, and – like the PRC – may use new technologies, such as generative AI, to improve their capabilities and reach into Western audiences.
Finally, the IC warned that Iran may attempt to conduct influence operations aimed at U.S. interests, including targeting U.S. elections in 2024, “having demonstrated a willingness and capability to do so in the past.”
“During the U.S. election cycle in 2020, Iranian cyber actors obtained or attempted to obtain U.S. voter information, sent threatening emails to voters, and disseminated disinformation about the election,” the report states. “The same Iranian actors have evolved their activities and developed a new set of techniques, combining cyber and influence capabilities, that Iran could deploy during the U.S. election cycle in 2024.”
The IC’s annual threat assessment comes as Congress members are making broad calls to prioritize regulating AI ahead of the 2024 elections.
In February, a group of 20 leading technology companies signed a pact to help combat the use of harmful AI-generated content, such as deepfakes, meant to deceive voters in the 2024 elections. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Mark Warner, D-Va., said this voluntary move is helpful, but he hopes to also see “some guardrails that have some force of law.”
